Hello Chad ----
Nighthawk, I believe was in some kind of partnership with Running Foxes for several years and in 2012 completed a buyout of Running Foxes' interest in the acreage in the area. Probably how Nighthawk ends up holding leases for the 410K acres that you mentioned.
I think you've hit the nail on the head in your analysis of Nighthawk's land position being excessive in relationship to their balance sheet, financial capability, etc. Unless they bring in industry partners, in a big way, there is no way they can drill up the land that they hold right now because imho, cash flow will not produce the cash quick enough to drill the leases out before they expire.
Regarding your comments on the 5 yr, 4yr, leases being long, etc. One needs to remember that this area has and for all practical purposes, still is, rank wildcat territory. Unless you're next door to a discovery, you don't find oil types beating down your door to get you leased up. Further, I'd push back a little on your thoughts re: lease bonus payments being irrelevant. Our land sat out there for 40 yrs. having only one lease on it during that time for our interests. No activity all that time re: drilling close enough to us to make any thing happen on our property. The Jolly Ranch field woke me up and then I discovered activity within two miles to the SW also.
One needs to start somewhere and if a mineral interest owner in this area holds out for two / two yr. leases, hard driven lease terms and forget about the lease bonus, I think the owner will end up with no lease at all and nothing happening for years.
I like to work with leasing agents / operating Cos. to encourage them into making something happen. Aggressive lease bonuses for me is good that it shows me that they have good intentions. The lease I cut had an aggressive bonus offer with it and I liked that. They wanted more years then I was willing to give so we compromised. The royalty agreement was also more than they offered but less than I wanted, so we compromised.
I'm 70 yrs. old and my bucket list includes sitting on a rig drilling a well on the property we have out there. We'll see what life has in store in that regard.
Good luck Chad and keep digging on the oil and gas facts of Lincoln County CO. A bunch of us really appreciate it. BTW, if you go to either Running Foxes website or Nighthawk's website, they have a terrific pdf presentation on the geology in the area down to granite. I think you would enjoy reviewing that presentation. If you can't find it, get back with me and I'll dig out more specifics on the website location.