Own a 5% ORRI to NMNM-0559175. I see EOG and Spur are making a push along the NW shelf in the Yeso, what kind of value am I looking at per NRA in this area?
Good question.
EOG seems to be drilling Strawn/Penn tests north of the Yeso trend right now. 5-10 miles north of you. EOG drilled one Yeso well in 19S25E (Boyd 15H) in the last 3 years, it’s pretty decent. Percussion’s wells are better, their “core” area is 2-3 miles to the East of you, their Yeso wells there look quite good.
Since Spur bought Percussion (May?) and then COG (Sept?) they have not drilled a single well. Anywhere. Which seems like a very odd way to follow up $1.5B worth of acquisitions on a play that has some lease expirations. Shallow mile long wells are not real expensive, you would think the econs of drilling a $3M well that makes >250kbo are pretty good. Maybe they have water handling issues or something they need to get lined out. EOG seems more in exploration than exploitation mode out here, and they have a zillion great wells they could drill in Lea County. So not sure what is going on with the Yeso play.
Because you have no permits on you at all I would guess that offers you would receive on your property would be pretty low on a per NRA basis. There just isn’t any reason to think EOG is going to rush out and drill this anytime soon, so no clue how anybody who was buying this to hold it could underwrite it at with much optimism. I would bet people would pay you less than $2k/NRA.
That said, if it ends up looking like the E/2 of Sec 27 of 19S 25E it’s worth a lot.
Not relevant at all, but I was just out there a few weeks back, it’s real close to where I grew up.
I appreciate the information, it’s very helpful. What do you think the likelihood is that this lease expires?
Also a good question. I didn’t dig into it too much. I think that lease was committed to the Dagger Draw upper Penn unit, but that unit is as far as I can tell pretty much dead these days. Looks like you have basically one marginally economic producer in Sec 30. Maybe I am missing something.
You’d think EOG would keep a 440 acre lease from expiring to avoid paying a million dollars to get it back. But they may be better off letting it expire and re-leasing it back at 87.5% as opposed to keeping the current lease with ORRIs, depends on how much ORRI is carved out.
Would be a major 
to have the lease expire, no doubt
A client has a similar ORRI near you. We contacted Spur and they do not appear to be interested in acquiring any additional interests. It’s a tough call on what to do here. If you hold it, you will almost certainly improve the price per acre, but there is always the risk the lease expires and your ORRI terminates.
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