We have a well in flowback stage! Does the production get better after that stage of the frack or does the production numbers during give a indication of what this well might produce? Thank you!
The flowback stage is not indicative of future production. The frac water needs to flow back out of the well and then the oil and/or gas will begin to flow. The first full 30 days after flowback are more useful in predicting the performance. Horizontal wells will start at a high peak and rapidly decline then flatten out for hopefully long performance at lower rates.
There is quite a bit of variability. Generally it climbs for a week or two before leveling off and then declining. The decline curve also varies widely but be happy if it drops less than 50% by the end of the first year. In some wells it can drop 80% before leveling off to a slow decline. The other general trend is gas production will generally become more predominant than oil production over time.
Treat every royalty payment like it’s the biggest one you will ever get and every bonus like it’s the last one you will ever get and you will be fine.
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Thank you Mr. Barnes and Mr. Caldwell for the info! Much appreciated!
Wise words here by Mr. Caldwell.
Going to correct myself. I am currently attending the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference. Just sat in on a very interesting paper on early performance versus Estimated Ultimate Recovery in the Delaware Basin of West Texas. The research in that area suggested that the six month cums are fairly good indicators of ultimate performance. Sparked my interest to look at my Woodford and Meramec wells in OK and see if that comment holds true. 30 day performance was somewhat helpful but nearly as much as 180 days.
Caveat: parent (single well) before any infill (child) wells drilled.