Hello folks.
I’m curious if anyone who has producing horizontal wells in the Tyler/Wetzel areas for a few years have modeled the decline for the oil and natural gas?
I’ve found a generic model, but nothing specific to the area.
Any insight appreciated. I’m curious what to expect a ten years down the road.
Regards
I have not, but I’d be interested to know if someone has and what it looked like.
By the way, the Tyler/Wetzel area is pretty big, and will probably have significantly different results depending on where exactly in either county the wells are located. I would expect further north to be more prolific, and closer to the Ohio River to be more prolific as well. Additionally, different drilling and fracking techniques will probably change the results, so location may not be the most important factor.
Thanks Kyle. I’m working on an example from relatives who started receiving royalties in October of 2021, but 3 1/2 years still isn’t a long enough time frame to ascertain longevity.
Variability is significant between wells as well as increasing technology. Hopefully these wells are still producing fifteen years from now.
Add reservoir, well length, proppant and frac water pressure and volumes. Kyle is right, location and age of well and completion technique are key. You might check and see if there are any SPE papers or West Virginia PhD or Master’s theses work that have investigated. Or check the investor presentations of the big operators.
I have wells that have been producing since 2010 and are still producing today, they were 12 stage fracks . The decline in the first 6 months was very significant. I’ve heard that they can refrack them but haven’t heard of any being done so far.
They will not refrack unless they think it is necessary as it is very expensive. Refrack is still in testing phases in several basins across the country. Your situation is normal.
Perry,
That is very interesting. Wells still producing after fourteen years. May I ask at about what percentage of its initial production?
I have a relative who has wells that were tapped in Sept/Oct of 2021, roughly 30 months of production. Oil was essentially a one year deal. Still a very nominal amount but basically finished.
Gas production appears to be at 23% of the initial full month rate, so a 77% drop at 30 months.
I found a study online that roughly corresponds with that example….if I can figure out how to post an illustration I will include.
Thanks.
What about the potential to drill deeper into a different shale play from an existing well pad?
Has that happened in the Marcellus region yet? Drilling to the Utica from an existing well pad after production slowed in the Marcellus?
I would say that they are down to around 20% of the initial rate, pressure is holding around 800 lbs, they did produce oil for the first year and each time after they had to be shut in for awhile and the pressure climbed
That’s excellent to still be at 20% after 13 or 14 years!
I suppose it’s possible my relatives wells could be governed down in times like this with low prices? I’m not familiar with the mechanics, but it would seem like producers would be able to control the flow.
I was expecting you to say they were producing at a consistent but very small percentage of the initial rate.
I’m sure there is a myriad of variables, but it’s encouraging nevertheless
Thanks
WV Marcellus wells are known to be prolific and slow decline. Some wells in the wet gas area are especially prolific in liquid, although the liquid still decline faster than gas, both the liquid and gas production could outstrip most other wet gas fields in other major basins, e.g. Permian and Eagle Ford
The liquids are around 3.2 gallon per mcf and liquids amount to as much as the gas for income
There’s definitely some drilling to non-Marcellus formations. Take a look at the Old Crow well pad that’s almost due east (and a tiny bit north) of the town of Kent on the Ohio River. It has wells for the Marcellus, Point Pleasant, and Trenton formations listed on the Office of Oil and Gas’ website. The Hunter Pethtel well pad is the next one east, and is the same. I know there are other well pads that have wells going to more than just the Marcellus shale. This is one reason I tell my clients to ask for a Marcellus Shale formation limit clause. You can get just about as much bonus payment for just the Marcellus as you can if you give up all the formations.
Yes think about it as shelves in a grocery store and get paid for each shelf. I myself have the Marcellus and Utica leased, I have wells in the Marcellus with a 750’ radius limit on the wells leaving the rest of the formation available to lease
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