Hi, Betsy -
Martin, April and Bigfoot have all made some good points. Other contributors here on The Forum may have additional advice.
The entire oil and gas industry is in a tremendous downslide nationwide and it appears that it will continue to be so for some time. It may be years before we see anything like $100 a barrel oil again and I think you can forget about seeing anything above $3 to $5 natural gas for the remainder of your lifetime.
I am impressed that you negotiated for a higher per acre Extension Bonus than you received for your Original Primary Term. Good thinking, there. I've only seen that a few times.
The same compliment to you, Bigfoot, on your Royalty to Value Sliding Scale. I'd love a copy of your Lease Provision regarding the same.
Your issue, Betsy, appears to be whether to accept the lower Extension Bonus amount or to take the chance that your Lease will expire.
I suggest you stay in touch with the Landman, but "Play Chicken" with him or her right up to the expiration date of the original Primary Term of your Lease, in an effort to see if they will "Blink First" and pay you the previously agreed upon $550 an acre.
Whether they are willing to "Blink First" depends entirely upon the value that the company places on your lands / interests.
If they are not willing to "Blink First", then you may be able to, at the last moment, accept their offer of $300 an acre.
If your Lease expires, eventually someone may come along and make you another offer. When that might be and whether it is greater than $300 an acre, depends upon a great many things that none of us have any control over.
The way I see it, the things you need to consider are:
How much do you need the $300 an acre on the table now?
And
How long might it be before anyone contacts you again about a future Lease and what might they be willing to offer then?
Either way, given the overall atmosphere of the industry today the odds of your acreage being drilled by the end of the subject two year extension are, in my opinion, close to astronomical.
My best advice is to "Play Chicken" with them until you feel they are close to the end of their efforts. Then, if necessary, accept their offer.
You may even be able to negotiate to accept their offer and a little more, but with an amendment to your Lease to include Bigfoot's Sliding Royalty Scale.
Hope this helps -
Charles Emery Tooke III
Certified Professional Landman
Fort Worth, Texas