Has this event changed anything for the long run, or is it going to be treated as a temporary supply interruption with minimal long term consequences? What’s your opinion?
I expect the Saudis to recover fairly quickly from the attack itself. Whether it leads to some widespread conflict? Anyone’s guess.
The risk premium will form a floor under oil prices, WTI will not flirt again with the dreaded $50 price for the foreseeable future. Did I really suggest the future is foreseeable?
Brazen act of war if evidence proves Iran launched the attack directly, not thru proxies. However, Saudi Arabia will probably not retaliate in kind, despite the world’s 3rd largest military budget. US & SA will probably prefer a diplomatic/economic response.
If Iran does attack then Saudi Arabia may not be able to respond diplomatically or otherwise. This YouTube video is what Iran was showing its citizens in 2016. If you do not speak Arabic you can forward to about the 1:10 minute mark where no dialogue is needed from there to the end of the video
And two photos showing a possible preview of what Saudi Arabia might look like courtesy of Saddam Hussein in the Kuwait oil fields1991.
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0543/2189/products/MCS-NYC107607_1024x.jpg?v=1446394494
http://www.psywarrior.com/OilFireLake001x.jpg
If this happens to Saudi Arabia how high will crude oil go if the war does not expand beyond the Iranian attack?