What will happen to the value of oil and gas mineral rights in Obama's second term? I began pinning this response to a forum discussion, but wanted to share with everyone:
Will Obama Work to Appease the Environmental Lobby?
Watch what happens when we get to round two of Keystone negotiations. It will happen soon and we'll know if Obama is dead set on appeasing the environmental lobby or if he wants to provide the cheapest energy possible to Americans. It is a no brainer that we should import more oil from friendly countries and especially our neighbors.
Appeasing the environmental lobby will mean the energy industry should expect higher taxes. If something is cheaper than what you want it to compete with, you tax it. We do it with imports consistently. Democratic economist are telling him to tax oil if he wants renewables to compete......
Also, watch what happens when the federal government releases it rules regarding frac'ing. Read between the lines. The guidance is going to tell us where this administration plans to go in term two. My business mind says no one is dumb enough to limit fracking when oil and gas production has created so many jobs in the past few years, but I've been wrong before (ask my wife).
What are Oil & Gas Mineral Rights Worth?
The answer to the original question is likely yes, with some caveats. Your minerals are likely worth less.
If no tax policy is agreed, income tax rates are going up, capital gains rates are rising, and estate taxes are going up. It all points to paying more taxes, but it will depend on what tax bracket you are in, whether you are planning to die (sarcasm), and whether or not you want to sell your minerals.
Personal Income Tax Rates Will Rise
I believe personal income tax rates will rise. (We already have some of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world....can't go there) If you listen to the debates, personal income tax increases are only going to be for people that make more than $250,000 per year. We'll see. It's going to take us all to pay down $20 trillion in debt (That's what is projected by the CBO in four years)
You will Pay More in Taxes When You Sell Mineral Rights
I'm a proponent of holding minerals, but I'm not one that will say hold them forever. My 80 year old grandfather has gotten offers on his minerals that I wish he would have taken. He could have enjoyed a little better retirement, but over the next 20-100 years there's no doubt holding will be a good decision. If someone has a good reason to sell, treat it like any other asset. Educate yourself, spend money on professionals, and make the best decision you can at the time.
My opinion is that the capital gains increases that come when the Bush Tax cuts expire WILL STAY. That's a 20% tax instead of 15%. I'm no genius, but I think that means your minerals are worth 5% less if you sell after year-end 2012. Just to show I try to be objective, I'll impart a bipartisan fact. A Bill Clinton led White House lowered rates from 28%-20% in 1997. Congress was controlled by Republicans very much like today. I believe the rates won't go above 20%, but an argument could be made that rates were 28% just 15 years ago. Listening to republicans this week...I think everything is up for negotiation, so the chance your minerals are worth 13% less if you sell at a future date is not zero.
You Might Have to Sell Minerals to Pay Estate Taxes
As for estate tax planning.....START PLANNING NOW. Until year-end 2012, The estate tax exclusion is $5.12 million. That means you don't pay estate taxes unless your estate is worth more than $5.12 million. Everything over that amount is taxed at a rate of 35%. As of January 1, 2013, the exclusion will fall to $1 million and the tax rate jumps to 55%. If you die on January 1, 2013, with a $2 million estate, $550,000 will go to Uncle Sam. My hope is there is no way we make that big of a jump. My guess is there is some compromise in the middle.
The Loss of Oil & Gas IDC Deductions Could be Crippling
I'm getting long winded, but the one that really matters is the Intangible Drilling Costs (IDC) deduction. A few years ago, I helped with a study for a large oil & gas association that showed the loss of IDC would mean operators would have 40% less capital in the first year of the loss. That means without the injection of significant capital from some outside source, U.S. oil and gas companies would have 40% less to spend on drilling wells in the U.S. Remember, this discussion only pertains to oil and gas wells in the U.S. We'd be penalizing ourselves while the rest of the world worked as normal.
Now, you do have to remember that the costs would still be deducted, but it would be a over a longer period of time (likely 7 years, but no one really knows). What that means is the industry is hit really hard in the first few years, but then everything normalizes over time. (This is if you ignore the time value of money, but let's just say it's minimal).
Let me summarize the past two paragraphs. U.S. drilling could drop 40% in year one if IDC's are lost.....I don't think that is good for America.
Are Commodity Prices the Most Important Factor in Valuing Oil & Gas?
Mr. Caldwell mentioned commodity prices being the most important factor. He is right, but it's not the only factor. Commodity prices are the most influential factor in how valuable your minerals are, but don't forget we're competing with the rest of the world. Compare the same well in two areas with different tax regimes and the well will be drilled in the area with lower taxes every time. I'm ignoring regulatory hurdles, but you get the picture.
A simple 5% increase in taxes could be the deciding factor in determining whether we're consuming domestic resources or foreign resources.