Hi All,
I recently saw a post on the forum with a reply (M. Barnes) indicating reserves left in currently producing wells. Is there a particular source for getting an estimate of the reserves remaining? I want to research some wells if possible.
Thanks to all who answer!
TheStockster
On a high level basis you can look for AAPG studies and EIA reports. If you are looking for individual wells, then you will need to employ a PE. See if the State geological society has any publications covering your area of interest.
Various subscription services are available, but they tend to be expensive.
There isn’t a lot of magic to estimating reserves. But…if you aren’t into the maths, then just punt. If you are ok with a little math…you just need to know how much a well is making now and how the volume should decline in the future. This (table below) is more/less how a well in McKenzie county should decline month over month based on how long the well has been producing. Decline gets shallower over time.
Find out what a well is producing on average over the last 6 months. Say 1250 bopm. See when the well started producing. Say in 2018. Then for that well this is year 7. Next month it should make roughly 98.3% of what it made this month. 1229 bopm. Then do the next month, and the next month, etc into the future…choosing the decline for that time period.
When the oil rate gets to say 250 bopm, stop. Then add up all the monthly oil volumes. That is the estimate of remaining reserves for that well. No well is as “smooth” as the decline estimate, but on average that is how a well declines and how a well declines is how people estimate reserves.
Sorry maybe this is all confusing. It shouldn’t be, if it is I am just poo at explaining it, the whole thing is like 6th grade math.
Great example @NMoilboy. This provides an overview for mineral owners in this forum that believe estimates of this nature are an easy process.
Good graphic. Some of us with Excel skills will do the decline curve for oil and the decline curve for gas and then extrapolate out a few years or decades depending upon the type of well. One can then plug in a generic price for oil and a generic price for gas and estimates the revenue. Some people use the NYMEX strip prices for five years adjusted for a state’s distance to transportation, lease field costs, taxes, etc.
Can you provide the section-township-range to the wells you are referring to? Im honestly shocked that you havent been asked that before advice was given
First, thank you all for the answers. The answers are very helpful and informative! As for Section/Township/Range (STR), we are looking at S32-T150-R96. The space unit covering wells here is larger (2,560 Acres +/-). There have been some new wells completed/producing in the last year and some new wells are just being completed / producing along the western boundary. This has been a very good producing area. However, a few of the older wells (old - but still well below 15 years - I think) are showing some status changes to inactive and production has been variable on the oldest wells - part of the reason I asked about reserves.
Enverus has a tool for mineral owners that is free (or you can upgrade for a fee) if your operator is on their EnergyLink system. (was called Mineral IQ) The very basic level allows you to look up a well and they have a ballpark reserves listing for the well for about nine years out. Wells may last longer, but you can do some looking.
