Reason for Optimism?

Just wondering if this is average timing for the process and if the well is at a stage to start producing

Permitted 12-31-12,

Spud 1-16-13

TD around 2-9-13

Fracked around 2-24-13

Good chance the candle was lit tonight (looked like dark steam coming out of the Flare Stack this afternoon {second hand info})

Thanks for any comments and sharing your knowledge !

KJ, I think it more likely indicates that your operator has their own frack crews. I could well believe that they are excited by a well on your minerals. As I mentioned before there is a well near you that produced 78k bbl of oil in 8 months. That would be very attractive to me as an operator. Another reason to not let grass grow under them would be the current price of oil. Your well is probably going to do it's greatest production in it's first year. If the well can do 100k bbl while the price is over $90 a barrel, it would be significantly ahead of a well producing the same amount for $75 or $80 per barrel. It has only been months since my oil last sold for $75 and that price may come again. I hope your operator wants to make the most of current prices. An extra million dollars to one and a half million is real money to anyone. Keep us informed, I love hearing good news and sometimes I think I don't hear enough of it.

Was hoping you would chime in R W. It is obvious that you scored and it is really cool that you share your insight through experience. Just praying and hoping my Dad can taste it in his lifetime. 83 YO, and worked the farm as my grand parents dictated. (only let him go to school til 8th grade). God Bless North Dakota, the USA and our ancestors who homesteaded.

Was out of town on business til this morning, pulled up the NDIC website and found on the daily activity report for 3-5-13 that our well is listed as WELLS RELEASED FROM "TIGHT HOLE" STATUS: When I pulled the well file, it came up as Confidential.

Do these two terms mean the same thing, or is there a distinct difference between them?

Thanks!

K J, if the well is released from tight hole status, the NDIC 0&G Division could probably give you information on the well. Unfortunately, the state depends on the operator to make such reports and there can be lag time involved. Production numbers can be found even for confidential wells under general statistics on the state o&g website, but those numbers are reported 5 to 6 weeks behind. I would give them a call anyway, I usually find it a pleasant call even if they can't help me with any information. I would say the odds are well in your favor that the well will be commercially viable. There is field pressure and oil, you can tell by the offset well/s. With the nearest offset well they nearly have a blueprint of how to drill your well by reading the other wells reports. There is a very small chance of mechanical failure, the operator will do all they can to make sure that does not happen. I believe it's more a matter of when and not if. Of course I still remember my first well that I closely followed from spud to completion, I felt a great deal like an 8 year old anticipating Christmas. The day when you know, will come, and it shouldn't be very long. Good luck with your well.

The clock is officially ticking. Neighbor in about one mile from the end of his lateral to the start of our lateral. confidential January runs 15651 bbl. We should know something on next months production report. Gonna ride what feels good for the moment and hope and pray that it happens sooner than later for my folks to at least be able to feel like their humble and selfless lifepath was rewarding.