| Average price West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) | Low Range Average | High Range Average | Mid Range Average | Actual |
| Q1 2015 | $36.47 | $56.47 | $47.47 | $41.72 |
| Q2 2015 (Jan Forecast) | $38.01 | $58.01 | $48.84 | |
| Q2 2015 (Apr Forecast) | $39.04 | $58.38 | $49.49 | |
| Q3 2015 (Apr Forecast) | $41.77 | $61.77 | $53.19 | |
| Q4 2015 (Apr Forecast) | $44.17 | $64.17 | $55.26 |
Above is my 2015 Q1 and Q2 forecast as of January, 2015.
It has been modified slightly to take into account of current world events and Q2, Q3 and Q4 evaluations are placed above as well.
Although the market has taken into account the current standing of nuclear arms reduction talks with Iran, the market has moved its numbers up around $1.00 per bbl over January estimations.
Taking the Q1 results, it would be VERY easy to reduce the mid range averages down by 1/8th.
That would put a reasonable value of Q2 actual midrange of $42.95.
There is a standard deviation on the predictive graph of $17.00, giving a range with a confidence interval of 95% of $32.00 and $108.00 per barrel for December, 2015 production. Note that this is not a normal, bell shaped curve.
Charting out future predictors show a flattening of price increase over this quarter, with slight upward movement in Q3 and Q4, which is essentially the same conclusions reached in my January analysis.
I knew that my minor in Finance would come in handy someday.
Buddy Cotten