Doing research on a lease offer recently received from Camino in 7-4N 6W. Looking for reports on production on some nearby wells to determine some order of magnitude of an EUR. The OCC site (http://imaging.occeweb.com/imaging/OGWellRecords.aspx) for searching existing well data doesn't produce search results when I try to search on API or well name. The site is new to me so I'm sure I'm doing something wrong. Goal is to get some nearby production data to plug into spreadsheet to then use MBarnes' great formula to forecast as much as can be possible the true present value of this well.
https://www2.oktax.onenet.net/GrossProduction/gp_PublicSearchPUNbyLegal.php
You might try the Oklahoma Tax Commission Public PUN Search... several search options.
Don,
Thanks much. That info was very helpful
This process of deciding on lease offers feels similar to winning the lottery only with lower cash values.....in some cases. The winner (mineral owner) is presented with two basic options - large cash payment today & small income stream for extended period of time - or very small cash payment today and 'more significant' income stream for extended period of time......except for the fact that your on your own figuring out the income streams. The information feels knowable if you can navigate through the vast resources and websites. Shouldn't be this hard to get a EUR on a proposed well and plug numbers into simple spreadsheet to calculate PV of the income stream. That way the decision would be informed rather than guesswork. I'm pouring over well data from nearby producing wells and attempting to read and understand the reports in order to pull the pertinent info to plug into spreadsheet. Still have this feeling someone has already done this type thing here on the forum so not wanting to recreate any wheels. I'd love feedback on the process others in the forum have undertaken to do the same type of evaluation.
Carl,
I use 3rd party tools/databases to make these decisions when nearby production is available. These are fairly expensive subscriptions. The problem is that many times is not enough public info to make a decision at the point when most lease offers involved. Possibly by the time a pooling application is being made. Also there is many things that are not known. Production from one well may not be conclusive because of experiments in the completion stages. The use of different proppants, stage separation, pressures, etc. Most of these things are not known.
I think too many people also put WAY too much weight in the reported production in the OCC completion reports. These number are required to be reported to the OCC to determine if the well is classified as a oil or gas well as they have different regulatory requirements. While the ratios may be similar, true production most often changes. I many cases the wells are still returning frack water when these tests are complete.
Often even in the same section individual well will see extreme differences in the first 24 months of production.
You mentioned two options, most of the time there are more than two. And also they can sometimes be combined. For example: If you have 20 net mineral acres, Lease (or elect) 10nma at 1/5 and 10nma at 1/4 for a net 22.5% lease.
Great info Rick. I really appreciate the help. It's a bit of a mine field for sure and eventually you just have to roll the dice and live with the choice.