Hello. Just messing with some numbers trying to figure out my wells' monthly productions. I still haven't subscribed to the North Dakota Industrial Commision's monthly production yet which I do plan to do. Until then, is there any way I can get a rough estimate of what monthly production of a well is by extrapolating the "24 hour peak flowback rate"? What is this? I presume that it is something to do with the first measurments at completion? Does it give any indication of monthly performance? The well I'm talking about is Arnson 13-24 #1H from Brigham Exp. If anyone can help I really appreciate it! Curiousity is killing the cat :)
Thanks,
Joe
That would be a nearly meaningless number for calculating your monthly production. The decline can be very steep. Your first check will probably be for 5 to 8 months of production. If you will give the Twp Rng Sec # 's I will look them up for you if NDIC has it posted. By the way NDIC accepts credit cards, but if you are like me I downloaded the form and mailed them the fee with a money order, as I don’t give out my cc# unless totally necessary. I’m glad to see your wells are giving you the enjoyment mine never have, yet.
Haha. I actually already got the first check and it was about an 8 month accumulation from being on the confidential list. The only reason I bring it up is because my checks for a few months were almost identical but the last two months have gone UP 200-400 dollars so I'm just wondering what's happening and what I can expect. Thank you for the response. What are the Twp Rng Sec numbers and where can they be found?
Thanks,
Joe
Township, range and section should be on your lease, deed, the draft or check stub for your signing bonus it is the legal description of where your minerals lie. Oil sells for a good bit more than it did. Expect a bit of lag between the time the price moves up or down and the effect on your check. Sadly you can expect a production decline. You may not notice it much for awhile if prices keep rising, but if oil drops to 75 dollars a barrel, it’s going to get your attention, especially with less barrels every month.
Joe,
You are referring to a test to measure the effectiveness of treatment of the well through perforations of the production casing and has little effect on early monthly production rates
Gary Hutchinson
24 hour peak flowback rate is an indicator, not a calculator of a wells potential. All wells produce at a declining rate from the first day until they are no longer economic.
If you think of a producing formation as being a pressured rock sponge, the initial peak flowback rate is an indicator of both down-hole pressure and the porosity, either natural or fracture created. Of course a flowback could be high if the well merely tapped into a small high pressured reservoir. Considering the general Bakken performance and the fact that Brigham has been aggressive in their completion techniques with outstanding results, the 3,191 initial flowback rate is indicative of a good well. 1,073 BBL first 60 day average is confirmation of this. The decline curve is parabolic so I hope you didn’t spend it all at one place. However, Brigham’s plans to drill 4 to 6 parallel Bakken wells in each unit should put a smile on your face.
As for when a royalty owner receives his check…. Consider the process. The oil is produced to a tank battery. Several days or weeks depending on the weather, production volume, road conditions etc . it is trucked to the pipeline connection or a refinery at which point a sale occurs. Depending on the relationship with the purchaser checks are cut or funds transferred to the producer or working interest owner by load or monthly. At this point the cash flow may lag actual production of some of the oil by 45 to 60 days. A typical operator will cut checks to Royalty owners on a monthly basis the following month. If the Royalty Owner’s relationship is with a Working Interest holder in a unit and the operator is making the sales for the working interest owner another 30 day lag can be expected. My point is that normal processing, not a big bad operator accounts for most delay in payment once the initial startup issues are resolved.